The Toronto Maple Leafs capped a miserable season by losing to James Reimer and the Ottawa Senators in game 82, finishing 28th overall with a 32-36-14 record and 78 points. Now all eyes turn to the May 5th draft lottery, where the Leafs have a real, if improbable, shot at keeping their top-five protected first-round pick instead of sending it to Boston in the Brandon Carlo trade.
The math isn't pretty, but it's not hopeless either. Toronto has a 58.2% chance of losing the pick to the Bruins; 44% odds of dropping to sixth and 14.2% of falling to seventh. But there's also a 24.5% chance they keep it at fifth overall, and a combined 16% shot at jumping into the top two (8.5% for first overall, 8.6% for second). Add it all up, and the Leafs have roughly a 42% chance of retaining their 2026 first-rounder.
For those unfamiliar with the NHL's lottery mechanics, here's the breakdown. Fourteen ping pong balls are placed in a machine, creating 1,001 possible combinations. Each lottery team is assigned a set of four-number combinations based on their final standings; the worse the record, the more combinations assigned. The Leafs, sitting fifth-worst, carry an 8.5% chance in the first draw for the first overall pick.
The first draw determines the top selection, with teams only able to move up a maximum of 10 spots. A second draw then determines the second overall pick. After that, the remaining order is set by reverse standings. If Toronto wins either of the first two draws or holds at fifth, they keep the pick. If they fall to sixth or seventh, it's Boston's.
Last year's lottery saw the New York Islanders jump from 10th to first overall, while Utah moved from 14th to fourth; the first time in five years that teams outside the top five had jumped into it. The odds of similar chaos happening again in back-to-back years feel low, but lottery chaos is exactly that: chaotic. The Leafs are banking on chalk holding or a miracle jump, and neither is guaranteed.
Still, a 42% chance of keeping a top-five pick in a strong draft class is nothing to dismiss. If the lottery falls Toronto's way, they're looking at potential access to elite talent like James Hagens or Matthew Schaefer; prospects who could accelerate a retool without gutting the roster.
The Best of the Worst-Case Scenarios
Once the Leafs' season officially derailed after the Olympic break, finishing fifth-worst became the least-bad outcome. Toronto was in a playoff spot as of mid-January, then went a catastrophic 5-15-5 post-Olympics; dead last in the NHL over that stretch. They closed the year on a seven-game losing streak, effectively bottoming out to maximize their lottery odds.
Whether intentional or not, the Leafs couldn't have done much better at salvaging their top-five protected pick once they were mathematically eliminated with roughly 20 games left. Brad Treliving fought hard for top-10 protection in the Carlo trade; he didn't get it, so fifth-worst was the next best thing. It also provided the only rational explanation for keeping Craig Berube behind the bench through a clearly tuned-out final month; losing games maximized the lottery odds.
The Brandon Carlo trade remains one of the most-maligned deals in recent Leafs history. Treliving sent a top-five protected 2026 first-rounder to Boston for a defensive defenseman who was supposed to stabilize the blue line. Instead, the Leafs collapsed, Carlo was fine but unspectacular, and now Toronto is staring down a 58% chance of losing a top-seven pick in a deep draft.
If the Leafs keep their pick, they forfeit their 2027 and 2028 first-rounders to the Flyers and Bruins, respectively. That's a steep cost, but it's manageable if the 2026 selection turns into an impact player. If they lose the pick and it lands in the top five for Boston, the optics are brutal; Treliving traded a potential franchise-altering prospect for a rental-like playoff push that never materialized.
What Keeping the Pick Would Mean
If the lottery breaks Toronto's way, the vision of a retool with a top-five prospect becomes significantly more realistic. Adding a Hagens, Schaefer, or another elite talent to a core still anchored by Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly gives an incoming GM flexibility. You're not rebuilding from scratch; you're injecting high-end youth into a competitive timeline.
Losing the pick doesn't doom the franchise, but it does narrow the margin for error. Toronto would still have cap space and trade assets to work with, but they'd be retooling without a cost-controlled elite prospect entering the pipeline. That's a harder sell to a fanbase that just endured the first non-playoff season in nine years.
The draft lottery is on May 5th. Between now and then, the Leafs and their fans get to stew in the uncertainty. A 42% chance of keeping the pick is better than a coin flip, but it's not comfortable. The balls will bounce one way or another, and Toronto's offseason strategy hinges on the outcome.
If they keep it, the conversation shifts to who they draft and how that player fits into the retool. If they lose it, the focus becomes maximizing returns elsewhere and hoping the new GM can thread the needle without high-end draft capital.
Twenty days. That's all that stands between the Leafs and clarity. Or chaos. With this franchise, it's usually both.
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