When Too Much Skill Becomes a Problem
There's something deliciously ironic happening in Colorado right now. The Avalanche have assembled one of the most talented rosters in hockey (Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and until recently, Mikko Rantanen) yet they're somehow making hockey look harder when they have a man advantage than when the game is played fairly.
At even strength, the Avs are an absolute wagon. During the 2024-25 season, they ranked 6th in goals for with 273 tallies and maintained a solid defensive structure with 231 goals against (11th in the league). But here's where it gets weird: this team that dominates 5-on-5 with speed, skill, and relentless pressure suddenly turns into a squad that looks like they're trying to solve a Rubik's cube blindfolded once they go on the powerplay.
The Numbers Don't Lie, But They're Confusing
Let's dive into the analytics, because the contrast is staggering.
5v5 Excellence:
According to the latest data, Colorado's 5v5 play has been consistently strong. During their playoff run last year, they posted league-leading numbers with 3.31 expected goals for per 60 minutes at even strength, a massive jump from their already respectable regular season mark of 2.72 xGF/60 (11th best). They generated 4.36 actual goals per 60 at 5v5 during that stretch. The eye test matches the numbers: when the Avs play even strength hockey, they're suffocating opponents with possession, creating quality chances, and finishing plays.
Powerplay Disaster:
Now flip to the man advantage, and it's like watching a completely different team. The Avalanche's powerplay percentage for 2024-25 sits at 24.8%, which sounds decent until you realize this team went an abysmal 1-for-13 in December alone. Over a 20-game stretch recently, they converted just 6 of 54 opportunities (11%). That's not a slump; that's a crater.
The underlying metrics tell an even more damning story. Their Expected Goals For per 60 on the powerplay sits at a pathetic 6.77, ranking 31st in the league. High Danger Corsi For per 60? Dead last at 15.81. These numbers scream that the process is fundamentally broken, not just snake-bitten by bad luck.
The Over-Passing Problem: Too Many Cooks in the Kitchen
Here's the thing about having MacKinnon, Makar, and (formerly) Rantanen on the same unit: they're all so skilled that they're looking for the perfect play instead of the good play.
Cale Makar leads the league in blocked shots on the powerplay with a staggering number of attempts getting stuffed. Nathan MacKinnon takes over a third of all shots on the unit and generates nearly a third of expected goals, but he's also had 96 shots blocked in one season, with Makar adding 32 more of his own. That's 128 attempts that never even reached the net from just two players.
Why? Because penalty kills have figured out the formula: take away the cross-ice pass from MacKinnon to Rantanen (or vice versa), play tight on Makar's point shot, and clear rebounds before Valeri Nichushkin can capitalize. It's not rocket science, and every coach in the league has the same game plan.
The Avalanche's response? Try to be even fancier. They're cycling the puck, looking for seams that don't exist, and passing up Grade-A chances in favor of trying to manufacture Grade-A+ chances. MacKinnon dominates possession (taking 60% more shot attempts than the next closest teammate) but when your shooting percentage tanks because you're trying to thread needles through traffic, volume doesn't matter.
The Analytical Deep Dive: Where's the Danger?
Let's get granular with the shot quality data, because this is where things get really interesting.
The Avalanche aren't just struggling to score on the powerplay. They're struggling to even create legitimate scoring chances. Their High Danger Corsi rate being dead last in the league tells you everything: they're not getting pucks to the net-front area where goals actually happen.
MacKinnon's fancy shooting percentage (goals per expected goal) is below average on the powerplay. Makar, despite firing 33.75 shot attempts per 60 this season (up from 29.10 last year), hasn't scored a single powerplay goal in 2025-26. When your best players are generating volume but not danger, you've got a systemic issue.
The Avs typically excel with a high shooting percentage because of their elite talent, but that advantage evaporates when they're taking low-danger shots from the perimeter or having attempts blocked before they reach the goalie. Analysis shows they're generating far fewer expected goals per minute than successful units. In one game against Utah where they actually looked dangerous, they posted 0.118 xG per minute, which was second-best that night. But compare that to New Jersey's 1.00 expected goals in similar ice time, and you see the chasm.
The Speed vs. Setup Paradox
Here's the fundamental disconnect: Colorado wins at 5v5 because they use speed, transition, and quick strikes. MacKinnon and Rantanen flying through the neutral zone at Mach 3 is terrifying. Makar jumping into the rush is unstoppable. The Avs generate offense through controlled chaos.
Then they go on the powerplay, and suddenly everything slows down. They enter the zone, set up their 1-3-1 formation, and try to execute a structured system. The problem? They're trying to play a patience game when their DNA screams attack.
NHL teams can defend a set powerplay when they know what's coming. They can't defend the Avalanche's 5v5 speed and creativity. The solution seems obvious: bring that same chaos to the powerplay. But old habits die hard, and the instinct to "play it right" on special teams is ingrained in hockey culture.
The Film Doesn't Lie
Breaking down recent games shows the pattern clearly:
Against Utah in December, the Avs went 0-for-3 despite creating five quality chances and 0.57 expected goals. They were actually dangerous but couldn't finish. That's bad luck mixed with good penalty killing.
Against Vancouver, they went 0-for-4 and gave up a short-handed goal. That's not bad luck, that's bad process. When you're over-handling the puck and forcing passes, turnovers become inevitable.
The difference? In the Utah game, Colorado was shooting more and cycling less. The process was better even if the results didn't show it. Against Vancouver, they fell back into old habits: too much east-west passing, not enough north-south attacks, and way too many cute plays that had zero chance of succeeding.
What Needs to Change?
The data points to some obvious fixes:
Shoot More, Pass Less: MacKinnon and Makar need to trust their shots. Yes, they're getting blocked at an alarming rate, but that's because they're telegraphing everything. Quick releases beat shot-blocking lanes. The stats show that when they simplify their approach, scoring chances increase.
Net-Front Presence: The Avs rank last in high-danger chances for a reason. They need bodies creating chaos in the blue paint. Nichushkin is physical enough to do this, but he's often camping on the flank waiting for a perfect pass that never comes. Get him to the dirty areas.
Entry with Speed: Stop treating powerplay zone entries like a chess match. The Avalanche are most dangerous when they attack with pace. Their 5v5 success comes from forcing defenders to react, not allowing them to set up. Apply the same philosophy to the powerplay.
Second Unit Experimentation: Sometimes the problem is too much talent trying to co-exist. Roll with different combinations. Let Ross Colton or Logan O'Connor get some run. Fresh legs and a simplified approach might spark something.
The Bottom Line
Colorado's powerplay isn't failing because they lack talent. It's failing because they have too much of it and don't know how to get out of their own way. The numbers bear this out: elite underlying metrics at 5v5, bottom-of-the-barrel production on the man advantage despite having three legitimate Hart Trophy contenders on the ice.
The Avalanche have proven they can dominate when the game is played honestly. MacKinnon is putting up video game numbers at even strength. Makar is arguably the best defenseman on the planet. Rantanen (now in Carolina) was one of the league's premier snipers. Yet somehow, giving this group an extra skater turns them into the hockey equivalent of analysis paralysis.
Fix the powerplay, and this team is a legitimate Stanley Cup threat. Keep trying to be too cute, and they'll continue to waste their most talented roster in years. The solution isn't complicated, it just requires them to trust the speed and skill that makes them elite at 5v5.
Sometimes in hockey, simple is better. The Avalanche need to learn that lesson before it costs them another season.
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