Projecting the Next 7 Years of Frank Nazar's Career Using Advanced Metrics and Comparables

When the Chicago Blackhawks signed Frank Nazar to a 7-year, $6.595 million-per-year contract, it signaled more than just faith in a prospect. It was a bet on a 5-foot-10, 190-pound playmaker whose intelligence and skating might outweigh the traditional concerns about size at the NHL level.

Now that Nazar has started logging actual NHL minutes, we can look at what his early performance says about the future — and use advanced metrics, historical comparables, and context to project what the next seven years might hold.

Who Is Frank Nazar Right Now?

After leaving the University of Michigan, Nazar joined the Blackhawks late in the 2023-24 season and debuted in the NHL in April. In his first handful of NHL games (as of spring 2025), Nazar posted:

While it’s a very small sample size, the early signs are encouraging. Nazar didn’t look out of place, and in fact, his underlying numbers (like Corsi and xG) suggest he helped drive play when he was on the ice.

Why Size Still Matters  and Why It Might Not for Nazar

At 5’10” and 190 lbs, Nazar is smaller than the average NHL center. The league’s average forward is around 6’1” and 200+ lbs. Historically, players of Nazar’s stature have to succeed with elite skating, high-end vision, and elite off-puck reads.

Nazar has those tools. He accelerates quickly through the neutral zone, reads pressure exceptionally well, and uses body positioning to protect the puck despite the size mismatch.

Players like Brayden Point, Cole Caufield, and Alex DeBrincat have proven that size can be overcome if the brain, feet, and compete level are elite.

What Advanced Metrics Say About His Ceiling

Let’s break down the early analytics:

• Transition Play: In his first few NHL games, Nazar ranked in the upper-half among Chicago forwards in controlled zone entries per 60. He is a natural carrier, which suggests he’ll be trusted to drive play through the neutral zone in the future.

• Shot Quality: His early xG/60 of ~0.18 is modest but in line with other top-6 rookies in limited minutes. As his usage increases, his volume should as well.

• Playmaking: Nazar has been a high-danger passer since college. His primary assist rate per 60 minutes at 5v5 was among the best on the team despite his low total minutes.

Using comparables like Brayden Point, Cole Caufield, and Clayton Keller (all smaller-framed, high-IQ players), we can model a realistic year-by-year point projection. This model assumes steady development, good health, and top-6 deployment.

This curve mirrors players like Brayden Point and Clayton Keller, who were also considered undersized but broke out between ages 22–24 and maintained strong outputs into their primes.

Chemistry with Bedard Could Change Everything

One factor that cannot be ignored in projecting Frank Nazar’s seven-year contract is his potential chemistry with Connor Bedard. The Chicago Blackhawks have invested heavily in making Bedard the centerpiece of their rebuild, and pairing him with dynamic young linemates like Nazar could pay off in a big way.

While Nazar is considered undersized by NHL standards at 5-foot-9 and 175 pounds, his game is built around speed, quick transitions, and playmaking vision. Those traits naturally complement Bedard’s elite shooting ability and high hockey IQ. If Nazar cements himself as Bedard’s regular winger or even a complementary center, his point production could accelerate well beyond what traditional comparables suggest.

Advanced metrics also highlight how player synergy can skew projections. In situations where smaller, skilled forwards have played alongside generational talents, their offensive numbers have often taken off. Think of how Artemi Panarin exploded offensively during his time with Patrick Kane, or how Chris Kunitz became a mainstay alongside Sidney Crosby. Nazar might not replicate Panarin’s career arc, but the possibility of inflated production is very real if he sticks with Bedard long term.

This chemistry factor could also speed up his timeline. Instead of taking three to four years to find his offensive ceiling, Nazar might hit his stride much faster by being in an environment where puck touches are frequent, scoring chances are plentiful, and opposing defenses are stretched thin by Bedard’s presence.

Ultimately, while comparables and models provide a baseline, context matters just as much. Nazar’s smaller size poses questions about durability and defensive impact, but his skating, playmaking, and potential fit alongside a superstar make his seven-year deal far more intriguing. If the Blackhawks can find the right linemate balance, his numbers could exceed projections sooner rather than later.

A Bet Worth Making

Frank Nazar may be small by NHL standards, but his brain, motor, and transition game give him a real chance to become a top-six fixture in Chicago for years to come. If his current development curve holds and he adds a bit more shot volume and strength, his next seven seasons could see him grow into a 60-plus point player and a key part of the Blackhawks’ return to relevance.

He may never bulldoze through defenders, but he doesn’t have to. The NHL is increasingly built on pace, skill, and intelligence  and those are Nazar’s strengths.