As the NHL free agency period approached full swing, the Toronto Maple Leafs made an uncharacteristically quiet — yet analytically savvy — move: acquiring Matias Maccelli from the Utah Hockey Club in exchange for a conditional draft pick (a 2027 3rd-rounder, or a 2029 2nd if Maccelli scores 51 points and the Leafs make the playoffs).
On the surface, Maccelli might not register as a blockbuster acquisition. He’s a 5’11” Finnish winger who posted a disappointing 18 points in 55 games last season. But beneath those raw numbers lies a profile that makes him an intriguing piece for Toronto’s middle-six, and a prime candidate for offensive rebound.
2024–25 Was an Anomaly, Not the Norm
After two solid seasons in Arizona where Maccelli recorded 49 and 57 points, his production dipped sharply in 2024–25 after Utah’s relocation. While the optics suggest regression, the context tells a more nuanced story.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | SH% | ATOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021–22 | ARI | 23 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4.8 | 14:12 |
| 2022–23 | ARI | 64 | 11 | 38 | 49 | 18.0 | 15:41 |
| 2023–24 | ARI | 82 | 17 | 40 | 57 | 11.4 | 16:14 |
| 2024–25 | UTA | 55 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 9.3 | 13:44 |
Maccelli’s average time on ice dropped by nearly 2.5 minutes per game from his peak year, suggesting a reduced role — likely due to Utah’s inconsistent forward lines and lack of cohesion following the franchise's move.
He spent only limited minutes with previous linemates Lawson Crouse and Nick Bjugstad, both of whom also regressed statistically. That instability likely disrupted the chemistry that once enabled Maccelli’s breakout success.
Advanced Metrics Tell a Different Story
Despite the drop in raw production, Maccelli’s underlying analytics remained promising.
| Season | Team | CF% | GF% | xG% | HDCF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021–22 | ARI | 43.52 | 29.17 | 38.60 | 42.27 | 0.964 |
| 2022–23 | ARI | 45.92 | 52.17 | 48.62 | 46.78 | 1.024 |
| 2023–24 | ARI | 48.55 | 56.04 | 51.16 | 53.47 | 1.026 |
| 2024–25 | UTA | 54.98 | 43.48 | 53.70 | 50.79 | 0.975 |
The culprit? A low on-ice shooting percentage of just 6.33%, reflected in a below-average PDO of 0.975. That’s not a talent problem — it’s a luck issue.
According to PuckIQ, Maccelli’s competition was well-distributed:
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30% vs elite players
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33% vs middle-tier
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36% vs bottom-tier/grinders
This suggests coaches trusted him in all situations — not just as a sheltered offensive winger. He also saw 59% offensive zone starts last season, up from 44% in previous years, indicating a clear intention to utilize him for offensive-zone production.
At a $3.425M cap hit for one year, Maccelli brings high-reward potential at low risk — especially in comparison to the inflated contracts expected during free agency. The Leafs effectively avoided a bidding war by striking early and banking on a bounce-back.
Maccelli turns 25 just before opening night, meaning he’s still entering his prime. If he rediscovers the playmaking form that led to 38 and 40 assists in his best seasons, Toronto may have found a gem.
The Leafs could deploy Maccelli in several ways:
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Third-line catalyst: Anchoring a secondary scoring line to support depth and spread offensive pressure.
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Second-line playmaker: Possibly slotting alongside John Tavares if William Nylander plays with Auston Matthews.
He’s not a shutdown player, nor does he bring much physical edge (just 6 hits last year), but his value lies in possession, tempo, and vision.
While Matias Maccelli won’t steal headlines like other big-name signings, the Maple Leafs’ front office — with ties to Arizona via Shane Doan and Brad Treliving — likely understands this player better than most. They aren’t betting on what Maccelli was last year; they’re betting on what he can be in the right environment.
If his usage rebounds and linemates stabilize, Maccelli could quietly become one of the steals of the offseason.
Matias Maccelli, Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL Trade, NHL Rumors, NHL Advanced Stats, Leafs Analysis, NHL Offseason, Shane Doan, Brad Treliving, Finnish Players, NHL Analytics, PuckIQ, PDO, Hidden Gem, NHL Depth Scoring
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